Long grain rice family pack
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 118% of its department trend.
| line | price now | suggested price | evidence from this line | extra £/yr conservative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long grain rice family pack Product code DEMO-C-002 | £3.07 | £3.17 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 118% of its department trend. | £13 |
| Tomato soup family pack Product code DEMO-C-019 | £4.22 | £4.32 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 100% of its department trend. | £11 |
| Orange drink family pack Product code DEMO-C-022 | £1.75 | £1.85 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend. | £11 |
| Tomato soup small pack Product code DEMO-C-003 | £3.18 | £3.28 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 114% of its department trend. | £11 |
| Mint sweets small pack Product code DEMO-C-011 | £3.17 | £3.27 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 100% of its department trend. | £11 |
| Butter small pack Product code DEMO-C-016 | £4.15 | £4.25 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 99% of its department trend. | £11 |
| Still water family pack Product code DEMO-C-021 | £3.26 | £3.36 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend. | £10 |
| Chocolate biscuits small pack Product code DEMO-C-012 | £4.01 | £4.11 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 108% of its department trend. | £10 |
| Still water small pack Product code DEMO-C-005 | £1.44 | £1.53 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 108% of its department trend. | £9 |
| Apple juice family pack Product code DEMO-C-008 | £2.90 | £3.00 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 101% of its department trend. | £9 |
| Pasta spirals small pack Product code DEMO-C-017 | £3.76 | £3.86 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend. | £9 |
| Sparkling water small pack Product code DEMO-C-023 | £3.38 | £3.48 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 96% of its department trend. | £8 |
| Sparkling water family pack Product code DEMO-C-007 | £4.24 | £4.34 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 102% of its department trend. | £8 |
| Long grain rice small pack Product code DEMO-C-018 | £1.77 | £1.87 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 95% of its department trend. | £8 |
| Cheddar slices small pack Product code DEMO-C-015 | £2.79 | £2.89 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 105% of its department trend. | £8 |
| Natural yoghurt small pack Product code DEMO-C-014 | £1.42 | £1.51 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 98% of its department trend. | £7 |
| Whole milk small pack Product code DEMO-C-013 | £3.07 | £3.17 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend. | £7 |
| Pasta spirals family pack Product code DEMO-C-001 | £4.59 | £4.69 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 123% of its department trend. | £7 |
| Apple juice small pack Product code DEMO-C-024 | £1.49 | £1.58 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend. | £7 |
| Baked beans small pack Product code DEMO-C-020 | £1.00 | £1.06 | This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend. | £6 |
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 118% of its department trend.
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 100% of its department trend.
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 114% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 100% of its department trend.
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 99% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 108% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 108% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 101% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 96% of its department trend.
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 102% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 95% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 105% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 98% of its department trend.
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 123% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend.
This line took a 10% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 103% of its department trend.
| line | price now | suggested price | evidence from this line | extra £/yr conservative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fruit sweets family pack Product code DEMO-C-010 | £4.15 | £4.25 | This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend. | £6 |
| Milk chocolate small pack Product code DEMO-C-009 | £1.13 | £1.20 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 96% of its department trend. | £4 |
| Baked beans family pack Product code DEMO-C-004 | £2.00 | £2.10 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 38% of its department trend. | £4 |
| Orange drink small pack Product code DEMO-C-006 | £1.01 | £1.07 | This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 110% of its department trend. | £4 |
This line took a 8% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 97% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 96% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 38% of its department trend.
This line took a 6% rise on its last measured rise; weekly volume then ran at 110% of its department trend.
Newest first. Suggested prices and recorded till prices are shown separately.
Fictional evidence trail: recommendations, service acknowledgements and till changes are simulated locally. Every result below is calculated from that invented history.
Price £4.33 → £4.59. Eight-week windows, excluding the change week. Kept its volume.
Units per week · before → after 14.75 → 15.05
VAT-corrected margin per week · before → after £13.99 → £17.54
Department-adjusted volume / margin ratios 1.02 / 1.25
Margin removes VAT at 20% before subtracting realised cost. This observational comparison does not isolate substitution, competitors or pack changes.
| line | verdict | volume ratio | margin ratio | margin £/week before to after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange drink small pack Product code DEMO-C-006 | Kept its volume Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £3.12 to £4.26 a week. | 1.06 | 1.37 | £3.12 → £4.26 |
| Pasta spirals family pack Product code DEMO-C-001 | Kept its volume Weekly volume held at 102% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £13.99 to £17.54 a week. | 1.02 | 1.25 | £13.99 → £17.54 |
| Still water small pack Product code DEMO-C-005 | Kept its volume Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £7.44 to £9.51 a week. | 1.06 | 1.28 | £7.44 → £9.51 |
| Baked beans family pack Product code DEMO-C-004 | Lost volume Weekly volume fell to 36% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £11.10 to £4.88 a week. | 0.36 | 0.44 | £11.10 → £4.88 |
| Tomato soup small pack Product code DEMO-C-003 | Kept its volume Weekly volume held at 98% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £17.94 to £21.40 a week. | 0.98 | 1.19 | £17.94 → £21.40 |
| Long grain rice family pack Product code DEMO-C-002 | Kept its volume Weekly volume held at 100% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £20.90 to £25.15 a week. | 1.00 | 1.20 | £20.90 → £25.15 |
Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £3.12 to £4.26 a week.
Volume ratio1.06
Margin ratio1.37
Margin per week£3.12 → £4.26
Weekly volume held at 102% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £13.99 to £17.54 a week.
Volume ratio1.02
Margin ratio1.25
Margin per week£13.99 → £17.54
Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £7.44 to £9.51 a week.
Volume ratio1.06
Margin ratio1.28
Margin per week£7.44 → £9.51
Weekly volume fell to 36% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £11.10 to £4.88 a week.
Volume ratio0.36
Margin ratio0.44
Margin per week£11.10 → £4.88
Weekly volume held at 98% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £17.94 to £21.40 a week.
Volume ratio0.98
Margin ratio1.19
Margin per week£17.94 → £21.40
Weekly volume held at 100% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £20.90 to £25.15 a week.
Volume ratio1.00
Margin ratio1.20
Margin per week£20.90 → £25.15
Old results counted the VAT collected on a sale as if it were margin, so almost every rise looked like a win. Corrected results take the VAT off first and then subtract what the stock cost. On the corrected basis 49 of these 54 rises still paid, 2 came out flat and 3 cost the shop money. Unknown VAT means a result cannot be scored; it never counts as zero.
| event set | margin basis | events | stuck | neutral | costly | cannot score cleanly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Store-set lines | Old gross basis | 54 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Store-set lines | Corrected VAT basis | 54 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Price-marked packs | Old gross basis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Price-marked packs | Corrected VAT basis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Stability diagnostic (transparency, not a filter): 54 rises had a clean, stable price before the change (spread within 6%); on the corrected basis 91% of those on packs without a printed price still paid. Rises that coincided with the end of a promotion are excluded.
Suggestions cover fast-selling lines with steady prices in departments where store-set rises worked. Price-marked packs are excluded. The list is ordered by corrected annual incremental margin.
| line | units/week before | units/week after | VAT-corrected margin £/week before | after | price | rise | volume vs department | old margin | old verdict | corrected margin | corrected verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long grain rice family pack | 30.00 | 30.00 | 20.90 | 25.15 | £2.90→£3.07 | +6% | 1.00 | 1.14 | STUCK | 1.20 | STUCK |
| Long grain rice family pack | 29.75 | 29.62 | 14.28 | 20.64 | £2.64→£2.90 | +10% | 1.02 | 1.31 | STUCK | 1.48 | STUCK |
| Long grain rice family pack | 29.50 | 28.25 | 9.24 | 13.56 | £2.44→£2.64 | +8% | 0.97 | 1.24 | STUCK | 1.49 | STUCK |
| Orange drink family pack | 29.50 | 29.25 | 5.75 | 7.90 | £1.53→£1.62 | +6% | 0.99 | 1.19 | STUCK | 1.37 | STUCK |
| Butter small pack | 29.25 | 29.00 | 19.01 | 26.34 | £3.84→£4.15 | +8% | 0.99 | 1.23 | STUCK | 1.38 | STUCK |
| Tomato soup family pack | 28.38 | 28.00 | 13.48 | 18.43 | £3.69→£3.91 | +6% | 1.01 | 1.21 | STUCK | 1.39 | STUCK |
| Tomato soup family pack | 28.38 | 27.88 | 18.68 | 25.55 | £3.91→£4.22 | +8% | 1.00 | 1.24 | STUCK | 1.40 | STUCK |
| Butter small pack | 27.88 | 29.62 | 13.01 | 19.26 | £3.62→£3.84 | +6% | 1.07 | 1.30 | STUCK | 1.50 | STUCK |
| Orange drink family pack | 27.62 | 28.50 | 7.46 | 10.78 | £1.62→£1.75 | +8% | 1.03 | 1.28 | STUCK | 1.44 | STUCK |
| Mint sweets small pack | 27.50 | 27.88 | 14.30 | 21.23 | £2.88→£3.17 | +10% | 1.00 | 1.29 | STUCK | 1.47 | STUCK |
| Tomato soup small pack | 27.25 | 26.00 | 9.04 | 14.26 | £2.57→£2.83 | +10% | 0.97 | 1.30 | STUCK | 1.60 | STUCK |
| Mint sweets small pack | 27.12 | 28.00 | 9.36 | 14.56 | £2.67→£2.88 | +8% | 1.06 | 1.34 | STUCK | 1.59 | STUCK |
| Still water family pack | 27.12 | 26.62 | 16.18 | 19.88 | £3.08→£3.26 | +6% | 0.97 | 1.13 | STUCK | 1.22 | STUCK |
| Baked beans family pack | 26.75 | 9.63 | 11.10 | 4.88 | £1.89→£2.00 | +6% | 0.36 | 0.41 | COSTLY | 0.44 | COSTLY |
| Baked beans family pack | 26.50 | 25.62 | 7.91 | 10.63 | £1.75→£1.89 | +8% | 0.97 | 1.20 | STUCK | 1.35 | STUCK |
| Baked beans family pack | 26.38 | 25.75 | 5.67 | 7.68 | £1.65→£1.75 | +6% | 0.98 | 1.19 | STUCK | 1.37 | STUCK |
| Baked beans small pack | 26.25 | 26.62 | 4.42 | 6.48 | £0.91→£1.00 | +10% | 1.03 | 1.32 | STUCK | 1.48 | STUCK |
| Tomato soup small pack | 26.00 | 25.48 | 17.94 | 21.40 | £3.00→£3.18 | +6% | 0.98 | 1.13 | STUCK | 1.19 | STUCK |
| Baked beans small pack | 26.00 | 26.00 | 2.86 | 4.38 | £0.84→£0.91 | +8% | 1.01 | 1.30 | STUCK | 1.55 | STUCK |
| Still water family pack | 25.88 | 25.25 | 9.40 | 15.07 | £2.80→£3.08 | +10% | 0.98 | 1.31 | STUCK | 1.61 | STUCK |
| Chocolate biscuits small pack | 25.38 | 25.38 | 11.33 | 18.52 | £3.44→£3.78 | +10% | 1.00 | 1.33 | STUCK | 1.63 | STUCK |
| Tomato soup small pack | 25.25 | 25.75 | 13.85 | 17.77 | £2.83→£3.00 | +6% | 1.05 | 1.22 | STUCK | 1.32 | STUCK |
| Chocolate biscuits small pack | 24.88 | 26.88 | 18.16 | 24.77 | £3.78→£4.01 | +6% | 1.08 | 1.26 | STUCK | 1.37 | STUCK |
| Pasta spirals small pack | 23.25 | 22.38 | 14.41 | 20.21 | £3.42→£3.76 | +10% | 0.97 | 1.25 | STUCK | 1.41 | STUCK |
| Still water small pack | 23.12 | 23.25 | 5.16 | 7.52 | £1.24→£1.36 | +10% | 1.00 | 1.28 | STUCK | 1.45 | STUCK |
| Still water small pack | 23.00 | 24.38 | 7.44 | 9.51 | £1.36→£1.44 | +6% | 1.06 | 1.21 | STUCK | 1.28 | STUCK |
| Apple juice family pack | 23.00 | 23.12 | 11.04 | 16.11 | £2.64→£2.90 | +10% | 1.01 | 1.29 | STUCK | 1.46 | STUCK |
| Still water small pack | 22.75 | 22.88 | 3.37 | 5.11 | £1.15→£1.24 | +8% | 1.01 | 1.28 | STUCK | 1.53 | STUCK |
| Pasta spirals small pack | 22.38 | 21.62 | 9.21 | 13.41 | £3.17→£3.42 | +8% | 0.97 | 1.23 | STUCK | 1.46 | STUCK |
| Apple juice family pack | 22.25 | 23.25 | 6.97 | 11.16 | £2.44→£2.64 | +8% | 1.04 | 1.33 | STUCK | 1.60 | STUCK |
How the estimate works
Based on till data covering 1 Jul 2025 to 7 Sep 2026, through 7 Sep 2026. Check each line with a scanner. No prices change automatically.
Every price on this list is tracked from the moment it's suggested. If the recommendation is not confirmed as reaching the store within 4 weeks, it's marked unserved and left out of scoring - not counted against it; it just didn't happen. Once it reaches the store, the till has 4 weeks to show a qualifying price rise. When the till first shows the new price, we wait and watch: it needs to hold on at least 5 selling days, at least 75% of the time, within 7 days of the first sale at the new price - extended up to 4 more weeks if trade is slow. If it doesn't hold, that's a blip, and it's never scored either way. If we simply don't get enough selling days to tell, that's recorded as cannot confirm - not enough data. That is also never scored and never treated as a fail. Only once a rise is confirmed do we measure the actual margin change; if the till data for that stretch is incomplete, the result stays unknown rather than guessed at - unknown is never scored as zero. 21 recommendations were never confirmed as reaching the store in time and stay here for the record only.
| line | recommended | status | margin £/week before→after |
what the till says |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange drink small pack Product code DEMO-C-006 | £0.95→£1.01 | Kept its volume Till price £1.01 from 2026-05-12 | £3.12→£4.26 | Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £3.12 to £4.26 a week. |
| Milk chocolate small pack Product code DEMO-C-009 | £1.13→£1.20 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Fruit sweets small pack Product code DEMO-C-026 | £3.69→£3.79 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Fruit sweets family pack Product code DEMO-C-010 | £4.15→£4.25 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Pasta spirals family pack Product code DEMO-C-001 | £4.33→£4.43 | Kept its volume Till price £4.59 from 2026-05-12 | £13.99→£17.54 | Weekly volume held at 102% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £13.99 to £17.54 a week. |
| Baked beans small pack Product code DEMO-C-020 | £1.00→£1.06 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Apple juice small pack Product code DEMO-C-024 | £1.49→£1.58 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Whole milk small pack Product code DEMO-C-013 | £3.07→£3.17 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Still water small pack Product code DEMO-C-005 | £1.36→£1.44 | Kept its volume Till price £1.44 from 2026-05-12 | £7.44→£9.51 | Weekly volume held at 106% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £7.44 to £9.51 a week. |
| Natural yoghurt small pack Product code DEMO-C-014 | £1.42→£1.51 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Mint sweets family pack Product code DEMO-C-027 | £3.27→£3.37 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Long grain rice small pack Product code DEMO-C-018 | £1.77→£1.87 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Cheddar slices small pack Product code DEMO-C-015 | £2.79→£2.89 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Milk chocolate family pack Product code DEMO-C-025 | £2.70→£2.80 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Sparkling water small pack Product code DEMO-C-023 | £3.38→£3.48 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Sparkling water family pack Product code DEMO-C-007 | £4.24→£4.34 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Pasta spirals small pack Product code DEMO-C-017 | £3.76→£3.86 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Apple juice family pack Product code DEMO-C-008 | £2.90→£3.00 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Still water family pack Product code DEMO-C-021 | £3.26→£3.36 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Chocolate biscuits small pack Product code DEMO-C-012 | £4.01→£4.11 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Baked beans family pack Product code DEMO-C-004 | £1.89→£1.99 | Lost volume Till price £2.00 from 2026-05-12 | £11.10→£4.88 | Weekly volume fell to 36% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £11.10 to £4.88 a week. |
| Tomato soup small pack Product code DEMO-C-003 | £3.00→£3.10 | Kept its volume Till price £3.18 from 2026-05-12 | £17.94→£21.40 | Weekly volume held at 98% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £17.94 to £21.40 a week. |
| Mint sweets small pack Product code DEMO-C-011 | £3.17→£3.27 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Tomato soup family pack Product code DEMO-C-019 | £4.22→£4.32 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Butter small pack Product code DEMO-C-016 | £4.15→£4.25 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Orange drink family pack Product code DEMO-C-022 | £1.75→£1.85 | No adoption, expired Kept for audit only | Not scored | No qualifying till rise by frozen adoption deadline 2026-06-02; kept for audit and never adoptable. |
| Long grain rice family pack Product code DEMO-C-002 | £2.90→£3.00 | Kept its volume Till price £3.07 from 2026-05-12 | £20.90→£25.15 | Weekly volume held at 100% of the department trend; margin pounds moved from £20.90 to £25.15 a week. |